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| Titel |
Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020 |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Xing, S. X. Wang, S. Chatani, C. Y. Zhang, W. Wei, J. M. Hao, Z. Klimont, J. Cofala, M. Amann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 7 ; Nr. 11, no. 7 (2011-04-04), S.3119-3136 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009583
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-3119-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local
and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment;
therefore, it is important to understand how China's air pollutant emissions
will change and how they will affect regional air quality in the future.
Emission scenarios in 2020 were projected using forecasts of energy
consumption and emission control strategies based on emissions in 2005, and
on recent development plans for key industries in China. We developed four
emission scenarios: REF[0] (current control legislations and implementation
status), PC[0] (improvement of energy efficiencies and current environmental
legislation), PC[1] (improvement of energy efficiencies and better
implementation of environmental legislation), and PC[2] (improvement of
energy efficiencies and strict environmental legislation). Under the REF[0]
scenario, the emission of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 will increase by
17%, 50%, 49% and 18% in 2020, while PM10 emissions will be
reduced by 10% over East China, compared to that in 2005. In PC[2],
sustainable energy polices will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions
by 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg and 1.8 Tg, respectively; better implementation of current
control policies will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emission by 2.9 Tg,
1.8 Tg, and 1.4 Tg, respectively; strict emission standards will reduce
SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 3.2 Tg, 3.9 Tg, and 1.7 Tg,
respectively. Under the PC[2] scenario, SO2 and PM10 emissions
will decrease by 18% and 38%, while NOx and VOC emissions will
increase by 3% and 8%, compared to that in 2005. Future air quality in
China was simulated using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model
(CMAQ). Under REF[0] emissions, compared to 2005, the surface concentrations
of SO2, NO2, hourly maximum ozone in summer, PM2.5, total
sulfur and nitrogen depositions will increase by 28%, 41%, 8%,
8%, 19% and 25%, respectively, over east China. Under the PC[2]
emission scenario, the surface concentrations of SO2, PM2.5, total
sulfur depositions will decrease by 18%, 16% and 15%, respectively,
and the surface concentrations of NO2, nitrate, hourly maximum ozone in
summer, total nitrogen depositions will be kept as 2005 level, over east
China. The individual impacts of SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOC and primary
PM emission changes on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations have been
analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that NOx emission
control need to be enhanced during the summertime to obtain both ozone and
PM2.5 reduction benefits. NH3 emission controls should also be
considered in order to reduce both nitrate concentration and total nitrogen
deposition in the future. |
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