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| Titel |
A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index |
| VerfasserIn |
M. A. Picornell, A. Jansa, A. Genovés |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 6 ; Nr. 11, no. 6 (2011-06-22), S.1787-1794 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009496
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1787-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe
weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model
predictions.
Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a
significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in
this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact
phenomena.
In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models,
in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the
operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from
the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and
H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its
accuracy in describing their features are assessed.
An index is presented as an indicator of the quality of the prediction,
derived from the frequency distribution of errors in the prediction of four
characteristics of the cyclone: position, central pressure value, geostrophic
circulation, and domain. Some sub-indexes are derived to verify each of the
variables separately in order to analyse the most frequent sources of error.
Other sub-indexes are also defined to indicate possible biases in the
numerical prediction model. |
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