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| Titel |
Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, B. Vié |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 5 ; Nr. 11, no. 5 (2011-05-23), S.1529-1544 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009429
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1529-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods.
Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response
times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive
hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the
temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to
forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP
deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the
uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to
quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a
perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error
statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from
single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are
then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to
produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood
events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the
deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation
method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a
state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring
less computing time. |
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