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| Titel |
Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo, M. Bindi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 5 ; Nr. 11, no. 5 (2011-05-09), S.1293-1302 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009411
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1293-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has
permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in
assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful
information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the
seriousness of the projected impacts.
In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum
wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An
artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based
crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are
then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and
precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of
future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected
yields below a selected threshold.
In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of
elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next few decades would
outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and
drying, the results of this study are of greater concern. |
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