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| Titel |
Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Laio, S. Tamea |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 11, no. 4 ; Nr. 11, no. 4 (2007-05-03), S.1267-1277 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009384
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-11-1267-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and
evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We
propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a
verification method originated in the meteorological literature
for the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of a
suitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of the
forecasts. We find that this procedure is useful and reliable when
it is complemented with other verification tools, borrowed from
the economic literature, which are addressed to verify the
statistical correctness of the probabilistic forecast. We
illustrate our findings with a detailed application to the
evaluation of probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of hourly
discharge values. |
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