 |
| Titel |
Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Gaslikova, A. Schwerzmann, C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 4 ; Nr. 11, no. 4 (2011-04-29), S.1205-1216 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009351
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1205-2011.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea
level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North
Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical
storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the
generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with
parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure
probability this enables the estimation
of annual expected losses. The
sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption
of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this
approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses
with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes
shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge
changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the
necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining
the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|