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| Titel |
Prediction of the date, magnitude and affected area of impending strong earthquakes using integration of multi precursors earthquake parameters |
| VerfasserIn |
M. R. Saradjian, M. Akhoondzadeh |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 4 ; Nr. 11, no. 4 (2011-04-19), S.1109-1119 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009343
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1109-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Usually a precursor alone might not be useful as an accurate, precise, and
stand-alone criteria for the earthquake parameters prediction. Therefore it
is more appropriate to exploit parameters extracted from a variety of
individual precursors so that their simultaneous integration would
reduce the parameters's uncertainty.
In our previous studies, five strong earthquakes which happened in the Samoa
Islands, Sichuan (China), L'Aquila (Italy), Borujerd (Iran) and Zarand
(Iran) have been analyzed to locate unusual variations in the time series of
the different earthquake precursors. In this study, we have attempted to
estimate earthquake parameters using the detected anomalies in the mentioned
case studies.
Using remote sensing observations, this study examines variations of
electron and ion density, electron temperature, total electron content
(TEC), electric and magnetic fields and land surface temperature (LST)
several days before the studied earthquakes. Regarding the ionospheric
precursors, the geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp were used to
distinguish pre-earthquake disturbed states from the other anomalies related
to the geomagnetic activities.
The inter-quartile range of data was utilized to construct their upper and
lower bound to detect disturbed states outsides the bounds which might be
associated with impending earthquakes.
When the disturbed state associated with an impending earthquake is detected,
based on the type of precursor, the number of days relative to the earthquake
day is estimated. Then regarding the deviation value of the precursor from
the undisturbed state the magnitude of the impending earthquake is estimated.
The radius of the affected area is calculated using the estimated magnitude
and Dobrovolsky formula.
In order to assess final earthquake parameters (i.e. date, magnitude and
radius of the affected area) for each case study, the earthquake parameters
obtained from different earthquake precursors were integrated. In other
words, for each case study using the median and inter-quartile range of
earthquake parameters, the bounds of the final earthquake parameters were
defined. For each studied case, a close agreement was found between the
estimated and registered earthquake parameters. |
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