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| Titel |
North Atlantic atmospheric regimes and winter extremes in the Iberian peninsula |
| VerfasserIn |
M. J. OrtizBeviá, E. SánchezGómez, F. J. Alvarez-García |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 3 ; Nr. 11, no. 3 (2011-03-25), S.971-980 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009276
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-971-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study, we assess the relationships between North Atlantic
scale atmospheric regimes and extremes of precipitation and minimum
temperature in the Iberian peninsula for an extended (DJFM) winter
season. As found in previous studies, large scale atmospheric
regimes are well represented in climate simulations while the
extreme atmospheric variability is not. The relationship between
some of these atmospheric regimes and the probability of occurrence
of extreme values in simulations of present day climatic variability
is validated here with daily observations at 68 meteorological
stations all over the Iberian peninsula. Therefore, the possible
changes in the probability of occurrence of winter extremes of
minimum temperature and precipitation are obtained by projecting the
changes in the probability of occurrence of the winter atmospheric
regimes. The trends in the frequency of the observed large scale
patterns give an indication of what can be expected in the next
decades. For the long term (in a century), the changes are obtained
directly from the comparison of the frequencies of the atmospheric
regimes in the scenario simulations with those of the historical
period. The projections obtained in this way are tested for
consistency with the results obtained by comparing the changes in
the extremes threshold values in the scenario with those of the
historical simulations. The results point to a future with less
precipitation extreme events and less minimum temperature extreme
events in winter in the westerly central part of the Iberian
peninsula. |
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