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| Titel |
The legal status of Uncertainty |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Altamura, L. Ferraris, D. Miozzo, L. Musso, F. Siccardi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 3 ; Nr. 11, no. 3 (2011-03-14), S.797-806 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009261
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-797-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
An exponential improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models was
observed during the last decade (Lynch, 2008). Civil Protection (CP) systems
exploited Meteo services in order to redeploy their actions towards the
prediction and prevention of events rather than towards an exclusively
response-oriented mechanism1.
Nevertheless, experience tells us that NWP models, even if assisted by real
time observations, are far from being deterministic. Complications frequently
emerge in medium to long range forecasting, which are subject to sudden
modifications. On the other hand, short term forecasts, if seen through the
lens of criminal trials2, are to the same extent, scarcely reliable (Molini et al.,
2009).
One particular episode related with wrong forecasts, in the Italian panorama,
has deeply frightened CP operators as the NWP model in force missed a
meteorological adversity which, in fact, caused death and dealt severe damage
in the province of Vibo Valentia (2006). This event turned into a very
discussed trial, lasting over three years, and intended against whom assumed
the legal position of guardianship within the CP. A first set of data is now
available showing that in concomitance with the trial of Vibo Valentia the
number of alerts issued raised almost three folds. We sustain the hypothesis
that the beginning of the process of overcriminalization (Husak,
2008) of CPs is currently increasing the number of false alerts with the
consequent effect of weakening alert perception and response by the
citizenship (Brezntiz, 1984).
The common misunderstanding of such an issue, i.e. the inherent uncertainty
in weather predictions, mainly by prosecutors and judges, and generally by
whom deals with law and justice, is creating the basis for a
defensive behaviour3 within CPs. This paper intends, thus, to analyse
the social and legal relevance of uncertainty in the process of issuing
meteo-hydrological alerts by CPs.
Footnotes:
1 The Italian Civil Protection is working in this direction since
1992 (L. 225/92). An example of this effort is clearly given by the Prime
Minister Decree (DPCM 20/12/2001 "Linee guida relative ai piani
regionali per la programmazione delle attivita' di previsione, prevenzione e
lotta attiva contro gli incendi boschivi – Guidelines for regional plans for
the planning of prediction, prevention and forest fires fighting
activities") that, already in 2001, emphasized "the most
appropriate approach to pursue the preservation of forests is to promote and
encourage prediction and prevention activities rather than giving priority to
the emergency-phase focused on fire-fighting".
2 Supreme Court of the United States, In re
Winship (No. 778), No. 778 argued: 20 January 1970, decided: 31 March 1970:
Proof beyond a reasonable doubt, which is required by the Due Process
Clause in criminal trials, is among the "essentials of due process and fair
treatment"
3 In Kessler and McClellan (1996): "Defensive medicine is
a potentially serious social problem: if fear of liability drives health care
providers to administer treatments that do not have worthwhile medical
benefits, then the current liability system may generate inefficiencies much
larger than the costs of compensating malpractice claimants". |
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