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| Titel |
Stratospheric water vapour and high climate sensitivity in a version of the HadSM3 climate model |
| VerfasserIn |
M. M. Joshi, M. J. Webb, A. C. Maycock, M. Collins |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 10, no. 15 ; Nr. 10, no. 15 (2010-08-04), S.7161-7167 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008677
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-10-7161-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| It has been shown previously that one member of the Met Office Hadley Centre
single-parameter perturbed physics ensemble – the so-called "low entrainment
parameter" member – has a much higher climate sensitivity than other
individual parameter perturbations. Here we show that the concentration of
stratospheric water vapour in this member is over three times higher than
observations, and, more importantly for climate sensitivity, increases
significantly when climate warms. The large surface temperature response of this ensemble member is more
consistent with stratospheric humidity change, rather than upper
tropospheric clouds as has been previously suggested. The direct
relationship between the bias in the control state (elevated stratospheric
humidity) and the cause of the high climate sensitivity (a further increase
in stratospheric humidity) lends further doubt as to the realism of this
particular integration. This, together with other evidence, lowers the
likelihood that the climate system's physical sensitivity is significantly
higher than the likely upper range quoted in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report. |
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