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| Titel |
An optimized ensemble sensitivity climatology of Mediterranean intense cyclones |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Garcies, V. Homar |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 12 ; Nr. 10, no. 12 (2010-12-02), S.2441-2450 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008526
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-2441-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A new approach was recently proposed to compute climatological statistical
sensitivities. It was applied on an already available classification of
Mediterranean intense cyclones. However, those sensitivity results are
questionable due to the limited homogeneity of some cyclone classes, which
severely hampers the application of the statistical sensitivity analysis
technique. In this study, a new classification of Mediterranean intense
cyclones is built with the aim of improving the reliability of the final
climatological sensitivity results. In addition to implementing a regional
classification and a subsequent division according to the preceding
conditions that lead to cyclone formation, a cluster pruning is applied to
maximize the homogeneity of the classes. The increased cluster homogeneity
and the higher significance of the obtained sensitivity estimates are
quantified. Furthermore, the improved representativeness of the sensitivity
fields derived after cluster pruning is tested and compared to previous
results by means of numerical experiments. Eventually, summary sensitivity
fields highlight the European Atlantic coasts, central and western Europe,
the central and western Mediterranean basin and north african lands as
sensitive regions for the evolution of these Mediterranean high-impact
systems. Although some outstanding improvements are confirmed in this study,
a further verification experiments are needed to objectively verify the
sensitivity results and build solid confidence on the method. |
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