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| Titel |
Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Szwed, G. Karg, I. Pińskwar, M. Radziejewski, D. Graczyk, A. Kędziora, Z. W. Kundzewicz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 8 ; Nr. 10, no. 8 (2010-08-19), S.1725-1737 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008347
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-1725-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU
allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland,
of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were:
number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum
and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of
consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices
were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in
three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two
time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961–1990 and 2061–2090. Climate
changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall,
have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes – droughts and heat
waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant
development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two
crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple
empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected
for most of the country, with national means of yield change being:
–2.175 t/ha for potatoes and –0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in
most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence
the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground) decreases.
Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the
future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation) needed to use the
agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water
balance components (now and in the projected future) can corroborate such
conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in
this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days and the
number of seniors (aged 65+). The value of this index is projected to
increase over 8-fold during 100 years. This is an effect of both increase in
the number of seniors (over twofold) and the number of senior-discomfort days
(nearly fourfold). |
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