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| Titel |
Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Palatella, M. M. Miglietta, P. Paradisi, P. Lionello |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 7 ; Nr. 10, no. 7 (2010-07-30), S.1647-1661 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008320
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-1647-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four
Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy), Ebro river basin (Spain), Po
valley (Italy) and Antalya province (Turkey). We performed the statistical
downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in two versions: in
one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA) filter is applied only to
predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing
a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has
been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP) is used as predictor. Downscaling has
been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the
CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have
been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the
500 hPa temperature (T500) as predictor, obtaining comparable results.
Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm
the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences
within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of
Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are
the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the
Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in
Summer and Autumn. |
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