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| Titel |
Physical controls on the scale-dependence of ensemble streamflow forecast dispersion |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Mascaro, E. R. Vivoni, R. Deidda |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 7 ; Nr. 10, no. 7 (2010-07-23), S.1605-1615 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008316
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-1605-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The accuracy of ensemble streamflow forecasts (ESFs) is impacted by the
propagation of uncertainty associated with quantitative precipitation
forecasts (QPFs) through the physical processes occurring in the basin. In
this study, we consider consistent ESFs (i.e., observations and ensemble
members are equally likely) and we study the effect of basin area (A) and
antecedent rainfall (AR) on the ESF dispersion, a metric of flood forecast
skill. Results from a set of numerical experiments indicate that: (i) for
small basins (≲180 km2), ESF dispersion is mainly dominated by
the runoff generation process and does not depend on the basin size A; (ii)
for larger areas, ESF dispersion decreases with A according to a log-linear
relation due to the decreasing variability of ensemble QPFs and, possibly, to
the channel routing process. In addition, we found that, regardless the basin
size, the ESF dispersion decreases as AR increases, and that the influence of
AR is larger for basins with fast response times. Physical controls (land
cover, soil texture and morphometric features) on the analyzed basin response
confirm these interpretations. |
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