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| Titel |
Hazard estimates for El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, México: a statistical approach for complex eruptive histories |
| VerfasserIn |
A. T. Mendoza-Rosas, S. Cruz-Reyna |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 6 ; Nr. 10, no. 6 (2010-06-10), S.1159-1170 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008224
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-1159-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México) most recent eruption
occurred in 1982 causing the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history
of Mexico. Prior to the eruption, El Chichón volcano was not considered a
very hazardous volcano, a perception mostly caused by the low eruption rate
of the past eruptions. The correct assessment of volcanic hazard is the first
step to prevent a disaster. In this paper, we analyze two periods of the
reported eruptive history of El Chichón volcano during the Holocene,
searching for the eruption rates of different VEI magnitude categories and
testing their time dependence. One period accounting the eruptions of the
last 3707 years before the last eruption (BLE) is assumed to be complete,
with no missing relevant events. More scarce information of a period
extending to 7772 years BLE is then added. We then apply the Non-Homogeneous
Generalized Pareto-Poisson Process (NHGPPP), and the Mixture of Exponentials
Distribution (MOED) methods to estimate the volcanic hazard of El Chichón
considering both periods. The results are compared with the probabilities
obtained from the homogeneous Poisson and Weibull distributions. In this case
the MOED and the Weibull distribution are rather insensitive to the inclusion
of the extended period. In contrast, the NHGPPP is strongly influenced by the
extended period. |
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