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| Titel |
Assessment of extreme wind speeds from Regional Climate Models – Part 1: Estimation of return values and their evaluation |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Kunz, S. Mohr, M. Rauthe, R. Lux, Ch. Kottmeier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 4 ; Nr. 10, no. 4 (2010-04-23), S.907-922 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008094
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-907-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Frequency and intensity of gust wind speeds associated with severe
mid-latitude winter storms are estimated by applying extreme value statistics
to data sets from regional climate models (RCM). Maximum wind speeds related
to probability are calculated with the classical peaks over threshold method,
where a statistical distribution function is fitted to the reduced sample
describing the tail of the distribution function. From different sensitivity
studies it is found that the Generalized Pareto Distribution in combination
with a Maximum-Likelihood estimator provide the most reliable and robust
results.
For a reference period from 1971 to 2000, the ability of the RCMs to
realistically simulate extreme wind speeds is investigated. For this purpose,
data from three RCM scenarios, including the REMO-UBA simulations at 10 km
resolution and the so-called consortial runs performed with the CCLM
at 18 km resolution (two runs), are evaluated with observations and a
pre-existing storm hazard map for Germany. It is found that all RCMs tend to
underestimate the magnitude of the gusts in a range between 10 and 30% for a
10-year return period. Averaged over the investigation area, the
underestimation is higher for CCLM compared to REMO. The spatial distribution
of the gusts, on the other hand, is well reproduced, in particular by REMO. |
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