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| Titel |
Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Merz, J. Hall, M. Disse, A. Schumann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 3 ; Nr. 10, no. 3 (2010-03-16), S.509-527 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008007
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-509-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flood risk emerges from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Over
recent decades the notion of risk being the basis for flood management
decisions has become widely accepted and operationalised through the use of
models and quantified risk analysis providing the evidence for risk-informed
decision making. However, it is now abundantly apparent that changes in time,
at a range of scales, of pertinent variables that determine risk are not a
second order consideration but, instead, fundamentally challenge the
conventional approach to flood risk management. The nature of some of these
changes, particularly those that operate on extended timescales, are highly
uncertain, yet decisions that may have implications for several decades still
have to be taken. In this paper we explore how flood risk management may be
adapted to address processes of uncertain future change. We identify a range
of levels at which change may be incorporated in decision making: in the
representation of uncertain non-stationary quantities; in the rules that are
used to identify preferred options; in the variety of options that may be
contemplated for flood risk management; in the scope of problem definition,
which increasingly extends to address multiple hazards and multiple functions
of river basins; and in the social and organizational characteristics that
promote adaptive capacity. Integrated responses to changing flood risk need
to attend to each of these levels of decision making, from the technicalities
of non-stationarity, to the promotion of resilient societies. |
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