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| Titel |
Societal landslide and flood risk in Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Salvati, C. Bianchi, M. Rossi, F. Guzzetti |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 3 ; Nr. 10, no. 3 (2010-03-16), S.465-483 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008004
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-465-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We assessed societal landslide and flood risk to the population of Italy. The
assessment was conducted at the national (synoptic) and at the regional
scales. For the assessment, we used an improved version of the catalogue of
historical landslide and flood events that have resulted in loss of life,
missing persons, injuries and homelessness in Italy, from 1850 to 2008. This
is the recent portion of a larger catalogue spanning the 1941-year period
from 68 to 2008. We started by discussing uncertainty and completeness in the
historical catalogue, and we performed an analysis of the temporal and
geographical pattern of harmful landslide and flood events, in Italy. We
found that sites affected by harmful landslides or floods are not distributed
evenly in Italy, and we attributed the differences to different
physiographical settings. To determine societal risk, we investigated the
distribution of the number of landslide and flood casualties (deaths, missing
persons, and injured people) in Italy, and in the 20 Italian Regions. Using
order statistics, we found that the intensity of a landslide or flood event
– measured by the total number of casualties in the event – follows a
general negative power law trend. Next, we modelled the empirical
distributions of the frequency of landslide and flood events with casualties
in Italy and in each Region using a Zipf distribution. We used the scaling
exponent s of the probability mass function (PMF) of the intensity of the
events, which controls the proportion of small, medium, and large events, to
compare societal risk levels in different geographical areas and for
different periods. Lastly, to consider the frequency of the events with
casualties, we scaled the PMF obtained for the individual Regions to the
total number of events in each Region, in the period 1950–2008, and we used
the results to rank societal landslide and flood risk in Italy. We found that
in the considered period societal landslide risk is largest in Trentino-Alto
Adige and Campania, and societal flood risk is highest in Piedmont and
Sicily. |
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