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| Titel |
Weather forecast in north-western Greece: RISKMED warnings and verification of MM5 model |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Bartzokas, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, C. J. Lolis, A. Gkikas, M. I. Tsirogianni |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 2 ; Nr. 10, no. 2 (2010-02-25), S.383-394 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007942
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-383-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The meteorological model MM5 is applied operationally for the area of
north-western Greece for one-year period (1 June 2007–31 May 2008). The
model output is used for daily weather forecasting over the area. An early
warning system is developed, by dividing the study area in 16 sub-regions and
defining specific thresholds for issuing alerts for adverse weather
phenomena. The verification of the model is carried out by comparing the
model results with observations from three automatic meteorological stations.
For air temperature and wind speed, correlation coefficients and biases are
calculated, revealing that there is a significant overestimation of the early
morning air temperature. For precipitation amount, yes/no contingency tables
are constructed for 4 specific thresholds and some categorical statistics are
applied, showing that the prediction of precipitation in the area under study
is generally satisfactory. Finally, the thunderstorm warnings issued by the
system are verified against the observed lightning activity. |
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