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Titel Weather forecast in north-western Greece: RISKMED warnings and verification of MM5 model
VerfasserIn A. Bartzokas, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, C. J. Lolis, A. Gkikas, M. I. Tsirogianni
Medientyp Artikel
Sprache Englisch
ISSN 1561-8633
Digitales Dokument URL
Erschienen In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 2 ; Nr. 10, no. 2 (2010-02-25), S.383-394
Datensatznummer 250007942
Publikation (Nr.) Volltext-Dokument vorhandencopernicus.org/nhess-10-383-2010.pdf
 
Zusammenfassung
The meteorological model MM5 is applied operationally for the area of north-western Greece for one-year period (1 June 2007–31 May 2008). The model output is used for daily weather forecasting over the area. An early warning system is developed, by dividing the study area in 16 sub-regions and defining specific thresholds for issuing alerts for adverse weather phenomena. The verification of the model is carried out by comparing the model results with observations from three automatic meteorological stations. For air temperature and wind speed, correlation coefficients and biases are calculated, revealing that there is a significant overestimation of the early morning air temperature. For precipitation amount, yes/no contingency tables are constructed for 4 specific thresholds and some categorical statistics are applied, showing that the prediction of precipitation in the area under study is generally satisfactory. Finally, the thunderstorm warnings issued by the system are verified against the observed lightning activity.
 
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