 |
| Titel |
Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique for quantitative precipitation forecasts in Piemonte region |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Cane, M. Milelli |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 2 ; Nr. 10, no. 2 (2010-02-12), S.265-273 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007932
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-265-2010.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a powerful post-processing method
for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model
output errors. It has been applied to real time NWP, TRMM-SSM/I based
multi-analysis, Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Hurricane Forecasts. The
novelty of this approach lies in the methodology, which differs from ensemble
analysis techniques used elsewhere.
Several model outputs are put together with adequate weights to obtain a
combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by
least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the
observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied
successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind
speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good
results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult
to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our
methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts, involving a new
accurate statistical method for bias correction and a wide spectrum of
results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|