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| Titel |
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? |
| VerfasserIn |
P. A. Newman, L. D. Oman, A. R. Douglass, E. L. Fleming, S. M. Frith, M. M. Hurwitz, S. R. Kawa, C. H. Jackman, N. A. Krotkov, E. R. Nash, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, R. S. Stolarski, G. J. M. Velders |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 9, no. 6 ; Nr. 9, no. 6 (2009-03-23), S.2113-2128 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007098
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-9-2113-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by
Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the
scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone
depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory
measurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling studies. This
science research led to the implementation of international agreements
that largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a
fully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future
world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an
annual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of the
globally-averaged column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is
destroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the
polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently
observed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases
are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave
radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower
stratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near
zero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as
currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling
that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the
tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation
increases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern
summer midlatitudes by 2060. |
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