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| Titel |
Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Segoni, L. Leoni, A. I. Benedetti, F. Catani, G. Righini, G. Falorni, S. Gabellani, R. Rudari, F. Silvestro, N. Rebora |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 6 ; Nr. 9, no. 6 (2009-12-15), S.2119-2133 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007077
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-2119-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project with the
aim of developing, at an European level, innovative geo-information
services for atmospheric, geophysical and man-made risks. Within
this framework, the Landslides Platform Service 2 (forecasting of
shallow rapid slope movements) has developed an integrated procedure
for the forecasting and warning of distributed shallow landsliding
to be used for civil protection purposes.
The Service consists of an automated end-to-end forecasting chain which uses
data from a probabilistic downscaled short-term rainfall forecast, soil
saturation estimates and meteorological radar outputs. The above data are
entered into a hydro-geological model that makes use of an infinite slope
approach to calculate the distributed Factor of Safety over the entire basin.
All outputs, and much of the input data, are shown on a WebGIS system so that
end-users can interactively access and download data. A distinctive feature
of the service is the use of an innovative soil depth model for predicting
the distributed thickness of the regolith cover within the basin, which is
one of the most important parameters controlling shallow landslide
triggering.
The service was developed in a pilot test site in NE Italy, the
Armea basin. Validation makes use of two rainfall events: one that
occurred in 2000 and a smaller, more recent event (2006) that caused
fewer landslides. Rainfall data have been used to compute a
distributed factor-of-safety map that has been overlaid onto the
landslide inventory. Instead of a traditional validation approach
based on the number count of correctly identified landslides, we
carried out an alternative procedure based on the landslides area
that gave outcomes which, for this preliminary stage of the
research, can be considered promising. |
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