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| Titel |
Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Bartholmes, Todini |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2005-10-07), S.333-346 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006967
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-9-333-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological
meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed
rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally,
semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood
forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the
utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of
metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models,
providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average
values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres.
Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling
the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were
analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI) was developed and
calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte
Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2). The model was then coupled with
several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area
Models (provided by DMI and DWD) with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to
the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting
results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a
meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994). The results
demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts
produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved
using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results
obtainable with measured rainfall. |
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