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| Titel |
Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Petrow, J. Zimmer, B. Merz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2009-08-12), S.1409-1423 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006903
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-1409-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The link between trends in circulation patterns and trends in the flood
magnitude is studied for 122 meso-scale catchments in Germany for a period
of 52 years (1951–2002). Flood trends, significant at the 10% level,
are detected for a large number of catchments. The catchments are pooled into
three regions, based on flood seasonality and flood trends.
Field-significant increasing trends are found for winter in Regions West and
East. For summer, increasing and decreasing flood trends are detected for
Regions South and East, respectively. The temporal behaviour of three flood
indicators of each region is compared to atmospheric indicators derived from
circulation patterns. Significantly increasing frequency and persistence of
flood-prone circulation patterns intensify the flood hazard during the
winter season throughout Germany. Moreover, a trend towards a reduced
diversity of circulation patterns is found causing fewer patterns with
longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. This indicates
changes in the dynamics of atmospheric circulations which directly influence
the flood hazard. Longer persistence of circulation patterns which in
general do not favour large precipitation amounts may lead to large runoff
coefficients due to soil-moistening and hence cause floods. |
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