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| Titel |
Development of dike fragility curves for piping and micro-instability breach mechanisms |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Vorogushyn, B. Merz, H. Apel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2009-08-10), S.1383-1401 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006901
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-1383-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The paper analyses the prevailing breach mechanisms of fluvial dikes. Piping
in the dike foundation and slope failure as a consequence of seepage flow
through a dike core (micro-instability) were identified as two of the
dominant breach mechanisms for historically-grown dikes along with
overtopping and slope macro-instability. For the former two mechanisms the
physically-based and empirical process descriptions were reviewed and led to
the formulation of the reliability functions. Evaluation of these functions
in the Monte Carlo framework for the time dependent load led to the
development of fragility functions. These functions indicate the probability
of failure of a dike section upon loading and can be computed for each
spatially discretised dike section. The probability of breaching is
conditioned by the uncertainty in geometrical and geotechnical dike
parameters. This uncertainty is explicitly taken into account during
computation of the fragility functions in a Monte Carlo simulation.
Sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to identify the sensitive
geotechnical parameters influencing the distribution of failure probability.
The identification of sensitive parameters indicates the priorities in
geotechnical measurement campaigns aimed at the assessment of dike stability.
The newly developed fragility functions can be applied in flood hazard and
risk assessment studies for modelling of dike failures in a probabilistic
framework. |
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