 |
| Titel |
Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Post, S. Wegscheider, M. Mück, K. Zosseder, R. Kiefl, T. Steinmetz, G. Strunz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2009-07-06), S.1075-1086 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006872
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-1075-2009.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments
reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time
compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified.
The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard
assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation
speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach.
Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on
the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer
estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak
immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly
impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were
identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various
sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented
approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a
function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area.
As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in
casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when
receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no
evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported
values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%.
The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such
as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and
preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in
tsunami early warning decision support. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|