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| Titel |
Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Merz, F. Elmer, A. H. Thieken |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 3 ; Nr. 9, no. 3 (2009-06-30), S.1033-1046 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006808
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-1033-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application
of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce
future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected
annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage"
floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to
the expected annual damage. For three case studies, i.e. actual flood
situations in flood-prone communities in Germany, it is shown that the
expected annual damage is dominated by "high probability/low damage" events.
Extreme events play a minor role, even though they cause high damage. Using
typical values for flood frequency behaviour, flood plain morphology,
distribution of assets and vulnerability, it is shown that this also holds
for the general case of river floods in Germany. This result is compared to
the significance of extreme events in the public perception. "Low
probability/high damage" events are more important in the societal view than
it is expressed by the expected annual damage. We conclude that the expected
annual damage should be used with care since it is not in agreement with
societal priorities. Further, risk aversion functions that penalise events
with disastrous consequences are introduced in the appraisal of risk
mitigation options. It is shown that risk aversion may have substantial
implications for decision-making. Different flood mitigation decisions are
probable, when risk aversion is taken into account. |
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