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| Titel |
Numerical forecast and analysis of a tropical-like cyclone in the Ionian Sea |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, A. Moscatello, F. Pacifico, A. Buzzi, R. Rotunno |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 2 ; Nr. 9, no. 2 (2009-04-03), S.551-562 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006721
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-551-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A forecasting system has been implemented for operational weather prediction
over southern Italy in the framework of the RISKMED (INTERREG IIIB) project,
which aims at weather-risk reduction in the central and eastern
Mediterranean area. The system comprises two different regional forecasting
chains, one based on BOLAM and MOLOCH models, the second based on the
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
On 26 September 2006, a subsynoptic-scale vortex developed over the
Mediterranean Sea and affected south-eastern Italy. The cyclone was
documented by radar reflectivity maps, Meteosat Second Generation satellite
images and surface stations data. The observational analysis showed that the
cyclone possessed the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean
tropical-like cyclone.
All the limited-area models employed in RISKMED were able to properly
forecast the formation of the small-scale vortex, although with differences
in intensity, trajectory and evolution. The predictability of the event has
been evaluated employing a multi-model, multi-analysis approach. The
simulation results show strong sensitivity to the specification of the
initial and boundary conditions.
Sensitivity experiments were performed in order to analyse the mechanisms
responsible for the development and the maintenance of the cyclone over the
sea. The life cycle of the vortex turned out to be characterized by
different phases: the orographic cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Atlas
Mountains; the initial phase of development, characterised by the critical
role played by the surface heat fluxes; the transition to a tropical-like
cyclone mainly as a consequence of the latent-heat release associated with
strong convective activity over the Ionian Sea; finally, the maintenance of
the vortex strength due to both the surface fluxes and the release of latent
heat. |
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