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| Titel |
Seismogenic zonation and seismic hazard estimates in a Southern Italy area (Northern Apulia) characterised by moderate seismicity rates |
| VerfasserIn |
V. Gaudio, P. Pierri, G. Calcagnile |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 1 ; Nr. 9, no. 1 (2009-02-17), S.161-174 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006616
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-161-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The northernmost part of Apulia, in Southern Italy, is an emerged portion of
the Adriatic plate, which in past centuries was hit by at least three
disastrous earthquakes and at present is occasionally affected by seismic
events of moderate energy. In the latest seismic hazard assessment carried
out in Italy at national scale, the adopted seismogenic zonation (named ZS9)
has defined for this area a single zone including parts of different
structural units (chain, foredeep, foreland). However significant seismic
behaviour differences were revealed among them by our recent studies and,
therefore, we re-evaluated local seismic hazard by adopting a zonation, named
ZNA, modifying the ZS9 to separate areas of Northern Apulia belonging to
different structural domains. To overcome the problem of the limited datasets
of historical events available for small zones having a relatively low rate
of earthquake recurrence, an approach was adopted that integrates historical
and instrumental event data. The latter were declustered with a procedure
specifically devised to process datasets of low to moderate magnitude shocks.
Seismicity rates were then calculated following alternative procedural
choices, according to a "logic tree" approach, to explore the influence of
epistemic uncertainties on the final results and to evaluate, among these,
the importance of the uncertainty in seismogenic zonation. The comparison
between the results obtained using zonations ZNA and ZS9 confirms the well
known "spreading effect" that the use of larger seismogenic zones has on
hazard estimates. This effect can locally determine underestimates or
overestimates by amounts that make necessary a careful reconsideration of
seismic classification and building code application. |
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