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| Titel |
Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Mazzorana, J. Hübl, S. Fuchs |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 1 ; Nr. 9, no. 1 (2009-02-17), S.145-159 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006615
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-145-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the
selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly
systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the
results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such
as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point
response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently
affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system
response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another
key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management
including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a
supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to
construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific
case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out
(1) to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped
with control measures, and (2) to identify hazards induced by woody debris
transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative
Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario
planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in
particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of
reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an
application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards
impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning
procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative
knowledge. |
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