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| Titel |
Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with special focus on Europe and the Arctic |
| VerfasserIn |
G. B. Hedegaard, J. Brandt, J. H. Christensen, L. M. Frohn, C. Geels, K. M. Hansen, M. Stendel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 8, no. 12 ; Nr. 8, no. 12 (2008-06-30), S.3337-3367 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006235
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-8-3337-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The response of a selected number of chemical species is inspected
with respect to climate change. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean
General Circulation Model ECHAM4-OPYC3 is providing meteorological
fields for the Chemical long-range Transport Model DEHM. Three
selected decades (1990s, 2040s and 2090s) are inspected. The 1990s
are used as a reference and validation period. In this decade an
evaluation of the output from the DEHM model with ECHAM4-OPYC3
meteorology input data is carried out. The model results are
tested against similar model simulations with MM5 meteorology and
against observations from the EMEP monitoring sites in Europe.
The test results from the validation period show that the overall
statistics (e.g. mean values and standard deviations) are similar
for the two simulations. However, as one would expect the model
setup with climate input data fails to predict correctly the
timing of the variability in the observations. The overall
performance of the ECHAM4-OPYC3 setup as meteorological input to
the DEHM model is shown to be acceptable according to the applied
ranking method. It is concluded that running a chemical long-range
transport model on data from a "free run" climate model is
scientifically sound. From the model runs of the three decades, it
is found that the overall trend detected in the evolution of the
chemical species, is the same between the 1990 decade and the 2040
decade and between the 2040 decade and the 2090 decade,
respectively.
The dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of
the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature
increase. Throughout the 21th century the ECHAM4-OPYC3 projects a
global mean temperature increase of 3 K with local maxima up to 11 K in the Arctic winter based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. As
a consequence of this temperature increase, the temperature
dependent biogenic emission of isoprene is predicted to increase
significantly over land by the DEHM model. This leads to an
increase in the O3 production and together with an increase
in water vapor to an increase in the number of free OH radicals.
Furthermore this increase in the number of OH radicals
contributes to a significant change in the typical life time of
many species, since OH are participating in a large number of
chemical reactions. It is e.g. found that more SO42− will
be present in the future over the already polluted areas and this
increase can be explained by an enhanced conversion of SO2 to
SO42−. |
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