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| Titel |
Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Montani, C. Marsigli, F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella, R. Buizza |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 8, no. 6 ; Nr. 8, no. 6, S.387-399 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005884
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-8-387-2001.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The performance of
the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by
nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted
ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September
1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times
ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and
space can be forecast at high resolution in probabilistic terms was
investigated. Rainfall probability maps generated by both LEPS and ECMWF
targeted ensembles are compared for different precipitation thresholds in
order to assess the impact of enhanced resolution. At all considered
forecast ranges, LEPS performs better, providing a more accurate
description of the event with respect to the spatio-temporal location, as
well as its intensity. In both flood cases, LEPS probability maps turn out
to be a very valuable tool to assist forecasters to issue flood alerts at
different forecast ranges. It is also shown that at the shortest forecast
range, the deterministic prediction provided by the limited area model,
when run in a higher-resolution configuration, provides a very accurate
rainfall pattern and a good quantitative estimate of the total rainfall
deployed in the flooded regions. |
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