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| Titel |
A model–data comparison for a multi-model ensemble of early Eocene atmosphere–ocean simulations: EoMIP |
| VerfasserIn |
D. J. Lunt, T. Dunkley Jones, M. Heinemann, M. Huber, A. LeGrande, A. Winguth, C. Loptson, J. Marotzke, C. D. Roberts, J. Tindall, P. Valdes, C. Winguth |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 8, no. 5 ; Nr. 8, no. 5 (2012-10-29), S.1717-1736 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005851
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-8-1717-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been
explored in a large number of modelling and data studies.
Here, using an ensemble of previously published model
results, making up "EoMIP" – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison
Project – and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and sea surface
temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and
model–data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies
exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at
high CO2, there is good agreement
between models and data for this period, particularly if possible
seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An
energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences
between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo
feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading
are the dominant cause for the
different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in
other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud
feedbacks. The CO2 level which would give optimal early Eocene model–data
agreement, based on those models which
have carried out simulations with more than one CO2 level,
is in the range of 2500 ppmv to
6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on
proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 and temperature
during this time period will allow
a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating
warm climates. If it is the case that a model which gives a
good simulation of the Eocene will also give a good simulation of the
future, then such an assessment
could be used to produce metrics for weighting future climate predictions. |
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