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| Titel |
Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Naef-Daenzer, J. Luterbacher, M. Nuber, T. Rutishauser, W. Winkel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 8, no. 5 ; Nr. 8, no. 5 (2012-10-10), S.1527-1540 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005840
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-8-1527-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is
incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before
the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long
record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate
and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an
uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale
atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea –
Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on
fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then
apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the
circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology
and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to
1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal
oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial
variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit
population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum"
(∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift
towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500,
and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented
increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model
against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900)
corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major
long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a
complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at
the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale
climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within
a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of
centuries. |
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