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| Titel |
Optimal design under uncertainty of a passive defense structure against snow avalanches: from a general Bayesian framework to a simple analytical model |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Eckert, E. Parent, T. Faug, M. Naaim |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 5 ; Nr. 8, no. 5 (2008-10-15), S.1067-1081 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005770
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-1067-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| For snow avalanches, passive defense structures are generally designed by
considering high return period events. In this paper, taking inspiration
from other natural hazards, an alternative method based on the maximization
of the economic benefit of the defense structure is proposed. A general
Bayesian framework is described first. Special attention is given to the
problem of taking the poor local information into account in the
decision-making process. Therefore, simplifying assumptions are made. The
avalanche hazard is represented by a Peak Over Threshold (POT) model. The
influence of the dam is quantified in terms of runout distance reduction
with a simple relation derived from small-scale experiments using granular
media. The costs corresponding to dam construction and the damage to the
element at risk are roughly evaluated for each dam height-hazard value pair,
with damage evaluation corresponding to the maximal expected loss. Both the
classical and the Bayesian risk functions can then be computed analytically.
The results are illustrated with a case study from the French avalanche
database. A sensitivity analysis is performed and modelling assumptions are
discussed in addition to possible further developments. |
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