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| Titel |
Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Sundberg, A. Moberg, A. Hind |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2012-08-27), S.1339-1353 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005716
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-8-1339-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A statistical framework for comparing the output of ensemble simulations from
global climate models with networks of climate proxy and instrumental records
has been developed, focusing on near-surface temperatures for the last millennium.
This framework includes the formulation of a joint statistical model for
proxy data, instrumental data and simulation data, which is used to optimize
a quadratic distance measure for ranking climate model simulations. An
essential underlying assumption is that the simulations and the
proxy/instrumental series have a shared component of variability that is due
to temporal changes in external forcing, such as volcanic aerosol load, solar
irradiance or greenhouse gas concentrations. Two statistical tests have been
formulated. Firstly, a preliminary test establishes whether a significant
temporal correlation exists between instrumental/proxy and simulation data.
Secondly, the distance measure is expressed in the form of a test statistic
of whether a forced simulation is closer to the instrumental/proxy series
than unforced simulations. The proposed framework allows any number of proxy
locations to be used jointly, with different seasons, record lengths and
statistical precision. The goal is to objectively rank several competing
climate model simulations (e.g. with alternative model parameterizations or
alternative forcing histories) by means of their goodness of fit to the
unobservable true past climate variations, as estimated from noisy proxy data
and instrumental observations. |
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