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| Titel |
A hydrometeorological model intercomparison as a tool to quantify the forecast uncertainty in a medium size basin |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Amengual, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, A. Martin, A. Morgillo, R. Romero, P. Papetti, S. Alonso |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2008-08-05), S.819-838 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005655
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-819-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In the framework of AMPHORE, an INTERREG III B EU project devoted to the
hydrometeorological modeling study of heavy precipitation episodes resulting
in flood events and the improvement of the operational hydrometeorological
forecasts for the prediction and prevention of flood risks in the Western
Mediterranean area, a hydrometeorological model intercomparison has been
carried out, in order to estimate the uncertainties associated with the
discharge predictions. The analysis is performed for an intense
precipitation event selected as a case study within the project, which
affected northern Italy and caused a flood event in the upper Reno river
basin, a medium size catchment in the Emilia-Romagna Region.
Two different hydrological models have been implemented over the basin:
HEC-HMS and TOPKAPI which are driven in two ways. Firstly, stream-flow
simulations obtained by using precipitation observations as input data are
evaluated, in order to be aware of the performance of the two hydrological
models. Secondly, the rainfall-runoff models have been forced with rainfall
forecast fields provided by mesoscale atmospheric model simulations in order
to evaluate the reliability of the discharge forecasts resulting by the
one-way coupling. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are
provided by the numerical mesoscale models COSMO and MM5.
Furthermore, different configurations of COSMO and MM5 have been adopted,
trying to improve the description of the phenomena determining the
precipitation amounts. In particular, the impacts of using different initial
and boundary conditions, different mesoscale models and of increasing the
horizontal model resolutions are investigated. The accuracy of QPFs is
assessed in a threefold procedure. First, these are checked against the
observed spatial rainfall accumulations over northern Italy. Second, the
spatial and temporal simulated distributions are also examined over the
catchment of interest. And finally, the discharge simulations resulting from
the one-way coupling with HEC-HMS and TOPKAPI are evaluated against the
rain-gauge driven simulated flows, thus employing the hydrological models as
a validation tool.
The different scenarios of the simulated river flows – provided by an
independent implementation of the two hydrological models each one forced
with both COSMO and MM5 – enable a quantification of the uncertainties of
the precipitation outputs, and therefore, of the discharge simulations.
Results permit to highlight some hydrological and meteorological modeling
factors which could help to enhance the hydrometeorological modeling of such
hazardous events. Main conclusions are: (1) deficiencies in precipitation
forecasts have a major impact on flood forecasts; (2) large-scale shift
errors in precipitation patterns are not improved by only enhancing the
mesoscale model resolution; and (3) weak differences in flood forecasting
performance are found by using either a distributed continuous or a
semi-distributed event-based hydrological model for this catchment. |
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