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| Titel |
Verification of operational Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) for a regional warning system – the AMPHORE case studies in the upper Po River |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Rabuffetti, G. Ravazzani, C. Corbari, M. Mancini |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 1 ; Nr. 8, no. 1 (2008-02-29), S.161-173 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005330
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-161-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural
hazards related to hydrometeorological events has grown due to the increased
frequency of extreme rainstorms. Several research projects have been
developed to test hydrometeorological models for real-time flood
forecasting. However, flood forecasting systems are still not widespread in
operational context. Real-world examples are mainly dedicated to the use of
flood routing model, best suited for large river basins. For small basins,
it is necessary to take advantage of the lag time between the onset of a
rainstorm and the beginning of the hydrograph rise, with the use of
rainfall-runoff transformation models. Nevertheless, when the lag time is
very short, a rainfall predictor is required, as a result, meteorological
models are often coupled with hydrological simulation. While this chaining
allows floods to be forecasted on small catchments with response times
ranging from 6 to 12 h it, however, causes new problems for the
reliability of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and also creates
additional accuracy problems for space and time scales.
The aim of this work is to evaluate the degree to which uncertain QPF
affects the reliability of the whole hydro-meteorological alert system for
small catchments. For this purpose, a distributed hydrological model
(FEST-WB) was developed and analysed in operational setting experiments,
i.e. the hydrological model was forced with rain observation until the time
of forecast and with the QPF for the successive period, as is usual in
real-time procedures. Analysis focuses on the AMPHORE case studies in
Piemonte in November 2002. |
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