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| Titel |
Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism |
| VerfasserIn |
O. B. Toon, R. P. Turco, A. Robock, C. Bardeen, L. Oman, G. L. Stenchikov |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 7, no. 8 ; Nr. 7, no. 8 (2007-04-19), S.1973-2002 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004911
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the
detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number
of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since
its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the
potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries
are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an
additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build
substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population
and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in
megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. We find that low
yield weapons, which new nuclear powers are likely to construct, can produce
100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires per
kt yield as previously estimated in analyses for full scale nuclear wars
using high-yield weapons, if the small weapons are targeted at city centers. A single "small" nuclear
detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases
by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts
of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear
exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive
yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange
could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in
World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war
between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of
long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe
national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from
urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due
to pyro-convection. Robock et al. (2007) show that the smoke would
subsequently rise deep into the stratosphere due to atmospheric heating, and
then might induce significant climatic anomalies on global scales. We also anticipate substantial perturbations of global
ozone. While there are many uncertainties in the predictions we
make here, the principal unknowns are the type and scale of conflict that
might occur. The scope and severity of the hazards identified pose a
significant threat to the global community. They deserve careful analysis by
governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific
community, as well as widespread public debate. |
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