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| Titel |
Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP* |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Benoit, N. Kouwen, W. Yu, S. Chamberland, P. Pellerin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 7, no. 6 ; Nr. 7, no. 6, S.877-889 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004861
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-7-877-2003.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| During the Special Observation Period (SOP, 7 September–15 November, 1999) of
the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP), the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community Model
(MC2) was run in real time at a horizontal resolution of 3 km on a computational domain
of 350☓300☓50 grid points, covering the whole of the Alpine region. The WATFLOOD model
was passively coupled to the MC2; the former is an integrated set of computer programs
to forecast flood flows, using all available data, for catchments with response times
ranging from one hour to several weeks. The unique aspect of this contribution is the
operational application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very
large, multinational domain. An overview of the system performance from the
hydrometeorological aspect is presented, mostly for the real-time results, but also from
subsequent analyses. A streamflow validation of the precipitation is included for large
basins covering upper parts of the Rhine and the Rhone, and parts of the Po and of the
Danube. In general, the MC2/WATFLOOD model underestimated the total runoff because of
the under-prediction of precipitation by MC2 during the MAP SOP. After the field
experiment, a coding error in the cloud microphysics scheme of MC2 explains this
underestimation to a large extent. A sensitivity study revealed that the simulated
flows reproduce the major features of the observed flow record for most of the flow
stations. The experiment was considered successful because two out of three possible
flood events in the Swiss-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from
the numerical weather models linked to the hydrological model and no flow events were
missed. This study has demonstrated that a flow forecast from a coupled
atmospheric-hydrological model can serve as a useful first alert and quantitative
forecast.
Keywords: mesoscale atmospheric model, hydrological model, flood forecasting, Alps |
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