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| Titel |
Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Sterlacchini, S. Frigerio, P. Giacomelli, M. Brambilla |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 7, no. 6 ; Nr. 7, no. 6 (2007-11-13), S.657-675 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004812
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-7-657-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community
project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain
Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in
Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites
(Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and
natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an
aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability,
elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a
landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the
identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of
the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging
phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area.
Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships
between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were
investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience
in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the
analysis.
A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the
"dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then
adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The
relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the
natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic,
functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and
indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area
(i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and
economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage,
which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage
was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage
ranged considerably from 2 840 000 to 9 350 000 €, depending on
the selected temporal scenario and the expected closing time of the
potentially affected structures.
The multi-disciplinary approach discussed in this study may assist local
decision makers in determining the nature and magnitude of the expected
losses due to a dangerous event, which can be anticipated in a given study
area, during a specified time period. Besides, a preventive knowledge of the
prospective physical effects and economic consequences may help local
decision makers to choose the best prevention and mitigation options and to
decide how to allocate resources properly, so that potential benefits are
maximised at an acceptable cost. |
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