Abstract: The MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwaters in Catchments) model has been
calibrated to three acid sensitive regions in the UK: Galloway, the South Pennines and
Wales. These calibrations use the best available data for surface water, soil and
deposition, from several UK data bases and regional sampling programmes. The model is
capable of reproducing observed base cation and acid anion concentrations as reflected by
a close match between observed and simulated acid neutralising capacity (ANC). Predictions
to 2016 under currently agreed emission reductions, the Gothenburg Protocol, show that
ANC greater than zero will be achieved at 100%, 86% and 100% of sites in Galloway, the
Pennines and Wales, respectively. This indicates the potential for biological recovery
and a return to ‘good status’ although chemical conditions remain some way from simulated
pre-acidification conditions. In the longer term, beyond 2036 (20 years after compliance
with the Gothenburg protocol), the model indicates that increased N leakage to surface
waters may cause deterioration in the chemical status.
Keywords: recovery, acidification, modelling, upland UK, ecology |