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| Titel |
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Steinacher, F. Joos, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, P. Cadule, V. Cocco, S. C. Doney, M. Gehlen, K. Lindsay, J. K. Moore, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 7, no. 3 ; Nr. 7, no. 3 (2010-03-11), S.979-1005 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004588
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-7-979-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic
carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon
cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and
the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show
a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2
and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2
emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are
consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is
dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic:
reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced
stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a
decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP.
The second regime is projected for parts of the
Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads
to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by
a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the
Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model
projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual
variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are
proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in
representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model
results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different
algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite
observations. |
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