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| Titel |
Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity |
| VerfasserIn |
S. A. Henson, J. L. Sarmiento, J. P. Dunne, L. Bopp, I. Lima, S. C. Doney, J. John, C. Beaulieu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 7, no. 2 ; Nr. 7, no. 2 (2010-02-15), S.621-640 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004492
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-7-621-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological
productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on
ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global
distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years
of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we
begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends
in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three
biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of
climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the
relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability
in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary
production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally
attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses
suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to
distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some
regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be
shorter (~20–30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary
production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate
change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal
variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability
in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the
global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be
established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be
definitively detected. |
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