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| Titel |
The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Kunz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 7, no. 2 ; Nr. 7, no. 2 (2007-05-03), S.327-342 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004456
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-7-327-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The preconvective environment on days with ordinary, widespread, and
severe thunderstorms in Southwest Germany was investigated. Various
thermodynamic and kinetic parameters calculated from radiosoundings
at 12:00 UTC were verified against subsequent thunderstorm
observations derived from SYNOP station data, radar data, and damage
reports of a building insurance company. The skill of the convective
parameters and indices to predict thunderstorms was evaluated by
means of probability distribution functions, probabilities of
thunderstorms according to an index threshold, and skill scores like
the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) that are based on categorical
verification.
For the ordinary decision as to whether a thunderstorm day was
expected or not, the best results were obtained with the original
Lifted Index (80% prediction probability for LI≤−1.73; HSS=0.57
for LI≤1.76), the Showalter Index, and the modified K-Index.
Considering days with isolated compared to widespread thunderstorms,
the best performance is reached by the Deep Convective Index. For
days with severe thunderstorms that caused damage due to hail, local
storms or floods, the best prediction skill is found again for the
Lifted Index and the Deep Convective Index, but also for the
Potential Instability Index, the Delta-θe Index, and a
version of the CAPE, where the lifting profile is determined by
averaging over the lowest 100 hPa. |
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