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| Titel |
A probabilistic approach to the concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation |
| VerfasserIn |
S. M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2005) ; Nr. 7 (2006-01-24), S.51-54 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004268
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-7-51-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is based on the
assumptions that (a) there exists an upper physical limit of the
precipitation depth over a given area at a particular geographical location
at a certain time of year, and (b) that this limit can be estimated based on
deterministic considerations. The most representative and widespread
estimation method of PMP is the so-called moisture maximization method. This
method maximizes observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture
would hypothetically rise up to a high value that is regarded as an upper
limit and is estimated from historical records of dew points. In this paper,
it is argued that fundamental aspects of the method may be flawed or
inconsistent. Furthermore, historical time series of dew points and
"constructed" time series of maximized precipitation depths (according to
the moisture maximization method) are analyzed. The analyses do not provide
any evidence of an upper bound either in atmospheric moisture or maximized
precipitation depth. Therefore, it is argued that a probabilistic approach
is more consistent to the natural behaviour and provides better grounds for
estimating extreme precipitation values for design purposes. |
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