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| Titel |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, M. Hofer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 6, no. 6 ; Nr. 6, no. 6 (2012-11-12), S.1295-1322 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003867
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass
balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the
surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the
ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a
leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface
mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed,
temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When
forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the
glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to
114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using
projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general
circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
(CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional
148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario
RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE
(scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP
scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the
end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE
(scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or
424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100,
ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of
uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference
between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice
mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼
2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85). |
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