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| Titel |
On the singular values decoupling in the Singular Spectrum Analysis of volcanic tremor at Stromboli |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Carniel, F. Barazza, M. Tárraga, R. Ortiz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 6, no. 6 ; Nr. 6, no. 6 (2006-10-16), S.903-909 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003802
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-6-903-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The well known strombolian activity at Stromboli
volcano is occasionally interrupted by rarer episodes of paroxysmal
activity which can lead to considerable hazard for Stromboli inhabitants
and tourists. On 5 April 2003 a powerful explosion, which can be compared
in size with the latest one of 1930, covered with bombs a good part
of the normally tourist-accessible summit area. This explosion was
not forecasted, although the island was by then effectively monitored
by a dense deployment of instruments. After having tackled in a previous
paper the problem of highlighting the timescale of preparation of
this event, we investigate here the possibility of highlighting precursors
in the volcanic tremor continuously recorded by a short period summit
seismic station. We show that a promising candidate is found
by examining the degree of coupling between
successive singular values that result from the Singular Spectrum
Analysis of the raw seismic data. We suggest therefore that possible anomalies in
the time evolution of this parameter could be indicators of volcano instability to
be taken into account e.g. in a bayesian eruptive scenario evaluator.
Obviously, further (and possibly forward) testing on other
cases is needed to confirm the usefulness of this parameter. |
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