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| Titel |
Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing |
| VerfasserIn |
E. J. Burke, I. P. Hartley, C. D. Jones |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 6, no. 5 ; Nr. 6, no. 5 (2012-09-27), S.1063-1076 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003787
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-6-1063-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is
currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release
into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for
estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean
temperature (P-GMT). The analysis is based on simulations made with the
Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM2-ES) for a range of representative
CO2 concentration pathways. Results using the high concentration pathway
(RCP 8.5) suggest that by 2100 the annual methane (CH4) emission rate is
2–59 Tg CH4 yr−1 and 50–270 Pg C has been released as
CO2 with an associated P-GMT of 0.08–0.36 °C (all 5th–95th
percentile ranges). P-GMT is considerably lower – between 0.02 and
0.11 °C – for the low concentration pathway (RCP2.6). The
uncertainty in climate model scenario causes about 50% of the spread in
P-GMT by the end of the 21st century. The distribution of soil carbon, in
particular how it varies with depth, contributes to about half of the
remaining spread, with quality of soil carbon and decomposition processes
contributing a further quarter each. These latter uncertainties could be
reduced through additional observations. Over the next 20–30 yr, whilst
scenario uncertainty is small, improving our knowledge of the quality of soil
carbon will contribute significantly to reducing the spread in the, albeit
relatively small, P-GMT. |
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