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| Titel |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps – application to future climate and snow cover |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Rousselot, Y. Durand, G. Giraud, L. Mérindol, I. Dombrowski-Etchevers, M. Déqué, H. Castebrunet |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 6, no. 4 ; Nr. 6, no. 4 (2012-07-24), S.785-805 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003692
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-6-785-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using
dynamically downscaled variables from the ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM)
for the control period (1961–1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1,
A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2021–2050 and 2071–2100).
These variables are statistically adapted to the different elevations,
aspects and slopes of the Alpine massifs. For this purpose, we use a simple
analogue criterion with ERA40 series as well as an existing detailed
climatology of the French Alps (Durand et al., 2009a) that provides complete
meteorological fields from the SAFRAN analysis model. The resulting scenarios
of precipitation, temperature, wind, cloudiness, longwave and shortwave
radiation, and humidity are used to run the physical snow model CROCUS and
simulate snowpack evolution over the massifs studied. The seasonal and
regional characteristics of the simulated climate and snow cover changes are
explored, as is the influence of the scenarios on these changes. Preliminary
results suggest that the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snowpack will
decrease dramatically in the next century, especially in the Southern and
Extreme Southern parts of the Alps. This decrease seems to result primarily
from a general warming throughout the year, and possibly a deficit of
precipitation in the autumn. The magnitude of the snow cover decline follows
a marked altitudinal gradient, with the highest altitudes being less exposed
to climate change. Scenario A2, with its high concentrations of greenhouse
gases, results in a SWE reduction roughly twice as large as in the
low-emission scenario B1 by the end of the century. This study needs to be
completed using simulations from other RCMs, since a multi-model approach is
essential for uncertainty analysis. |
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